Comments on: probabilities http://timkastelle.org/blog/2009/11/probabilities/ Designed in Brisbane by Tim Kastelle & John Steen Wed, 08 Feb 2012 03:10:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tim http://timkastelle.org/blog/2009/11/probabilities/comment-page-1/#comment-2316 Tim Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:35:06 +0000 http://timkastelle.org/blog/?p=761#comment-2316 Thanks for the feedback Stephen (and thanks for writing a really nice blog!). Interesting that you're a Patriots fan - it must make it a lot harder to view it dispassionately. Thanks for the feedback Stephen (and thanks for writing a really nice blog!). Interesting that you’re a Patriots fan – it must make it a lot harder to view it dispassionately.

]]> By: Stephen Shapiro http://timkastelle.org/blog/2009/11/probabilities/comment-page-1/#comment-2311 Stephen Shapiro Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:41:52 +0000 http://timkastelle.org/blog/?p=761#comment-2311 Nice article. It's interesting how emotions play such a big part in how we make decisions. I am a New England fan. It was so difficult to watch us lose. And in situations where we have an emotional attachment, we are more likely to want to play it safe. This goes counter to when smart businesses need to do. You need to play the numbers - if they can be calculated, which often they can't. When we do lose, we feel the pain more deeply than the times when we don't. Had we made the 1st down, the emotional attachment to the play would be much less. This is all part of the pain/gain theory. We notice our losses much more than we notice our gains. Here's an article I wrote a while back that discusses this in very simple terms... http://www.stephenshapiro.com/2007/01/11/what-do-test-taking-blackjack-and-investing-have-in-common/ Thanks. Nice article. It’s interesting how emotions play such a big part in how we make decisions. I am a New England fan. It was so difficult to watch us lose. And in situations where we have an emotional attachment, we are more likely to want to play it safe. This goes counter to when smart businesses need to do. You need to play the numbers – if they can be calculated, which often they can’t.

When we do lose, we feel the pain more deeply than the times when we don’t. Had we made the 1st down, the emotional attachment to the play would be much less. This is all part of the pain/gain theory. We notice our losses much more than we notice our gains. Here’s an article I wrote a while back that discusses this in very simple terms…

http://www.stephenshapiro.com/2007/01/11/what-do-test-taking-blackjack-and-investing-have-in-common/

Thanks.

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